Raw material market improved during the week, with costs rising. Steady supply and demand failed to prevent the expected price decline in July [SMM Weekly Review of Prebaked Anode]

SMM June 26 News:

Raw Material Side: In the petroleum coke market, market activity has significantly increased, with smooth shipments from refineries driving prices higher. Downstream anode material enterprises and carbon used in aluminum production enterprises have been actively restocking, with particularly notable price increases for low- and medium-sulphur petroleum coke. Specifically, this week, CNOOC's petroleum coke prices have seen a wide range of increases, with rises ranging from 220-520 yuan/mt, and the current price range is 3,550-3,850 yuan/mt. Binzhou Petrochemical is still under maintenance and has not provided a quote, while Huizhou Coke Port's quote is 3,550 yuan/mt. PetroChina's refineries in the northeast region have had good shipments this week, with petroleum coke prices generally increasing by 80 yuan/mt, and the current price range is 3,330-3,830 yuan/mt. Sinopec's refineries have seen moderate trading activity for petroleum coke, with some refineries pushing prices up slightly this week, with increases concentrated within 50 yuan/mt. Local refineries have seen moderate shipment performance this week, coupled with adjustments to refinery specifications, leading to a continuous increase in petroleum coke prices. Currently, downstream enterprises' restocking behavior has effectively boosted market sentiment, driving a significant increase in trading activity. SMM expects petroleum coke prices to maintain a mild upward trend next week. According to SMM data, the average price of petroleum coke from local refineries is reported at 2,319 yuan/mt, up 5.43% MoM. In the coal tar pitch market, the market situation has been relatively stable this week, with coal tar pitch prices transitioning smoothly. As of Thursday, the average price of coal tar pitch is 3,612 yuan/mt. Overall, the current cost support for prebaked anodes is relatively strong.

From the supply perspective, prebaked anode enterprises continue to adopt the "produce based on sales" strategy. This week, the industry's operating rate has remained stable, with no significant fluctuations in production schedules. Market supply has maintained a dynamic balance, with no significant increases or decreases. In terms of demand, along with the southward shift of capacity in the Shandong region and regional adjustments in aluminum electrolytic capacity, overall capacity has been operating smoothly.

Brief Commentary: This week, the prebaked anode raw material market has performed moderately, with slightly enhanced cost support. According to SMM data, as of June 26, the cost of prebaked anodes in China is approximately 4,726 yuan/mt, up 1.48% MoM. From the perspective of market supply-demand pattern, the current industry's operating rate remains high, with downstream demand maintaining a steady trend. However, it should be noted that the raw material market performed relatively weakly in June. Affected by this, there is a clear expectation of a price decline for prebaked anodes in July, with an estimated drop of around 270 yuan/mt. In the future, it is necessary to continuously monitor the supply-demand changes and price trends in the prebaked anode and its raw material markets.

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